Looking back on my 25 years in technology, I can’t help but feel an immense sense of gratitude. It has been an amazing ride, and I feel incredibly lucky to have had a front-row seat—and often, a place on the stage—for some of the most profound technological shifts in human history.

My career has spanned the dot-com boom, the rise of enterprise software, the mobile revolution, the shift to the cloud, and now, the dawn of the AI era. Each wave was built on the last, creating a foundation for the next leap forward. The amount of change we’ve packed into the last quarter-century is staggering. It makes you wonder: if this is what we saw in the last 25 years, where could we possibly be in the next 25?

It feels impossible to predict, but some people make it their life’s work. One of the most compelling thinkers on this topic is the inventor and futurist, Ray Kurzweil.

The Prophet of Exponential Growth

Ray Kurzweil is a towering figure in computer science. He’s an author, inventor, and one of the most prominent futurists of our time. He’s probably one of the oldest living computer scientists and even worked with the legendary Marvin Minsky at MIT—an institution I’ve grown particularly fond of since my daughter started attending.

Kurzweil is best known for his mind-bending books like The Singularity Is Near and his brand new follow-up, The Singularity Is Nearer. In them, he argues that humanity is approaching a “Singularity”—a point in the near future where technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization. He predicts we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), an AI that can understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can, by 2029, and that the Singularity itself will occur around 2045.

He frames this journey through his “Six Epochs of Evolution”:

1. Physics and Chemistry: Information in atomic structures.
2. Biology: Information in DNA.
3. Brains: Information in neural patterns.
4. Technology: Information in hardware and software.
5. The Merger: The fusion of technology and human intelligence.
6. The Universe Wakes Up: The point where intelligence saturates the cosmos.

According to Ray, we are living in the 5th Epoch right now.

Why We Fail to See the Future

Kurzweil’s predictions can feel like science fiction because our brains are wired to think linearly. We struggle to grasp the power of exponential growth. Think about it: if you take 30 linear steps, you end up 30 meters away. If you take 30 exponential steps (doubling each time), you travel over a billion meters—enough to circle the Earth 26 times!

A Futurist, in my mind, is someone who can intuitively grasp exponential growth. They don’t just see the next step; they see the curve. This understanding is the key to Kurzweil’s central thesis: The Law of Accelerating Returns.

The Law of Accelerating Returns

This law is the engine driving us toward the Singularity. It states that the rate of technological advancement—and evolution in general—is not linear, but exponential. This happens because of powerful feedback loops of innovation. Each new generation of technology provides better tools to create the next generation, which is then created faster and more efficiently.

Think of it as a form of societal reinforcement learning. We create a tool, learn from it, and use that knowledge to build a better tool, accelerating the cycle. Moore’s Law, which famously predicted the doubling of transistors on a chip every two years, is just one famous example of this law in action. But Kurzweil argues it applies to all information-based technologies. The law of accelerating returns is happening now, and it has been for a long time. The evidence is all around us.

Mary Meeker’s “Trends, Artificial Intelligence” Report

For decades, anyone in tech has eagerly awaited Mary Meeker’s annual “Internet Trends Report.” She is a bit of a celebrity in our circles, first publishing her report in 1995 and updating it yearly until 2019. Just a few weeks back, she and her team at BOND Capital dropped a new gem: “Trends, Artificial Intelligence”.

Reading through the 340-slide deck, I couldn’t help but see it as a stunning validation of Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns. The AI pace of change is off the charts. The compounding effect of AI technology, its ecosystem, and user adoption is completely unheralded.

The arc of Meeker’s deck proves that this AI wave is built upon all the technology that came before it: computing power, vast datasets, advanced algorithms, and global communications networks. It’s the ultimate feedback loop.

Here are a few slides that stood out to me:

• Slide 20: Google Disruption: The pace at which new AI-native search products are challenging Google is breathtaking. This isn’t a slow, decade-long battle; it’s happening in months.

• Slide 26: Wisdom, Not Just Knowledge: “Wisdom” is why products like ChatGPT and Gemini Search will win. Traditional search gives you knowledge (a list of links). AI-powered search provides wisdom—synthesized, contextual answers. It’s a fundamental upgrade.

• Slide 43: Passing the Turing Test: We are already starting to pass the Turing Test in various modalities. AI is becoming indistinguishable from human-created content, a milestone Kurzweil predicted for 2029. We’re right on schedule, if not ahead.

• Slide 302: Waymo vs. Lyft: In San Francisco, Waymo’s autonomous vehicles have surpassed Lyft in market share. Think about that. A technology that was science fiction a decade ago is now out-competing an established, human-powered incumbent in a major city. The disruption is real and it is happening now.

Buckle Up

As someone who has spent a career building things, I find it impossible to look at Kurzweil’s theories and Meeker’s data with anything but immense optimism. This isn’t a moment for fear; it’s a moment for builders. The scale of this transformation is unlike anything we’ve ever seen, presenting an unprecedented opportunity to redefine what’s possible and build a better future.

There will be fear and resistance; there always is. This is not a new phenomenon. When the printing press emerged in the 15th century, the scribal class and religious authorities feared a loss of control, calling it a technology that would spread dangerous ideas to the masses. In the 19th century, the Luddites famously smashed the automated looms that threatened their craft and livelihoods. And in our own lifetimes, people protested the introduction of calculators in schools, fearing students would forget basic math. The AI revolution is, of course, something much bigger, but the pattern of anxiety and opposition is the same. We cannot turn back the clock. The feedback loop of innovation is spinning faster than ever.

So much change is ahead of us. Buckle up.